For students of history in the 20th century, it is pretty obvious that history is hell bent on repeating itself unless discerning world leaders can read the trend and take appropriate action accordingly. Unfortunately as the world ruminates on the sad events that triggered the great war of 1914, we are watching a repeat of the kinds of events beginning in 1936 that inexorably led to the Second World War, when the Nazi Dictator began a dangerous gamble in Europe that eventually led to a global conflict from which the world is yet to fully recover from.
The world is once more confronted by a set of events albeit reminiscent of another long-past era that is boiling up and which can explode if not when handled. The fact remains that NATO as it is today had its roots in the desire of the Western European Bloc that escaped Soviet occupation after WW2 to protect itself from a feared Soviet invasion after World War 2 on account of the huge armies that the Soviet Union had built in the course of the war and which could easily by 1948 overrun the rest of Europe if the Soviet leadership was willing to risk another war.
The British , French, Belgians , Dutch, Italy and the new West German State that emerged in 1949 saw sense in the wisdom of collective security together with the United States serving as a hedge against any adventurism by the Soviet leaders into Western Europe. Even at the height of its power NATO could scant contain the Soviets if they chose to invade and that is where American nuclear deterrent came in handy and that ultimately led to the nuclear arms race between Russia and America that dominated the second half of the 20th century. Detente became acceptable when the two super powers finally attained the status of [MAD] mutually assured destruction in the late sixties and early seventies.
That state of affairs kept Europe in peace until the early eighties when the sheer burden of the unequal struggle with the United States and Western Europe led to an implosion that saw the USSR disintegrating in 1989 despite the heroic efforts of Mikhail Gorbachev to save the union through Glasnost and Perestroika. The Soviet Union came off unhinged and NATO declared victory in the 45 year old Cold War. That notwithstanding even though Russia the sole heir to the assets and liabilities of the now dissolved Soviet Union was in a seriously weakened state and gasping for breathe to survive, The West still felt obliged to maintain the Defensive alliance that was formed out of fear of the now defunct Soviet Union.
The Soviet created military alliance known as the Warsaw pact was dissolved in 1991alongside its economic and political pact known as COMECON. NATO however remained and in fact began an East- ward expansion leading to the genuine psychological fear in Russia that NATO's new vision was to see Russia permanently crippled as a great power.That to me was begging the question of whether NATO had not deviated from its vision of protecting Europe to becoming a threat to European security. The question of the Eastern expansion of the alliance to incorporating the component states of the defunct Warsaw Pact and finally to including the former states of the old USSR was to me a very dangerous and unwholesome provocation to Russia which was still desperately trying to find its feet.
The NATO gamble in expanding to the East could have succeeded if the West was sure that Russia as a giant could never find its feet again as it seemed to appear for about two decades. But then the rise of nations like China, India, Brazil, Indonesia , Mexico and growth else where furnished ground for the huge rise in energy prices as well as demand for natural gas in Europe and elsewhere of which Russia is well endowed. With huge earnings pouring down its coffers , it was only natural for the now revived giant to seek a restoration in its fortune especially as its nuclear stock pile, the largest in the world for that matter was still intact.
The dynamics of resurgence in Russia today is not limited to Putin as an individual, because the nationalist sentiments that Putin has stirred in his second coming has resonated with the average Russian and that is why he has continued to enjoy record support not only in Russia but among Russian speaking people in Eastern Europe. The idea taking root in Russia today is that our time has come again and obviously the desire to settle scores again was becoming very obvious among the Russian populace. The Russian people have also never forgotten that none of the old Soviet Republics worked harder to unsettle the union than Ukraine.The fact also remains that in 24 years of independence Ukraine has not been able to find its feet economically.
Ukraine's umbilical cord still remained tied to Russia up till 2013, and that is why the ousted Ukrainian leader still looked to renewing its economic dependence on Moscow . The decision to cut that umbilical cord was a decision Ukraine alone ought to take without the rancorous interference of the West as was orchestrated during the Maidan uprising late last year. In other words it was a tragic mistake for Europe and America to come forward boldly to offer their 'surgical knife' to Ukraine to sever a relationship and a dependence syndrome on Russia that had spanned over three hundred years. Naturally Russia was bound to react and that they have done unabashedly ,sparking this latest round of needless confrontation.
A decision by Ukraine to severe ties with Russia ought to be Ukraine's only and ought not to be influenced by a riotous mob as was seen in the disturbances that racked the country late last year until this year. The decision of the West to boldly 'help' Ukraine severe ties with its past master was not only unwise but needlessly provocative and has brought the world to the brink of a new Cold war as it is today. The situation in Ukraine is evocative of the conflict that persisted between The United States and the Soviet Union over Cuba in the sixties and seventies .
The United States felt Cuba belonged in its sphere of influence , considering their historic ties especially when America fought the Spanish-American war just to free Cuba at the turn of the 19th century only to have the Soviet Union make attempts to use Cuba as a staging ground for targeting the US with short -range nuclear missiles. It was completely unacceptable to the Kennedy Administration in the early sixties and America was ready to go to war to press its point .
In the same way Western dabbling in the affairs of Ukraine and its Russian speaking people to me is needlessly provocative. Let the Ukrainian people and Russia settle their differences themselves without outside interference for the sake of world peace. In any case, NATO is not under any obligation as it is to intervene in Ukraine militarily as emotional as the events may look. Secondly NATO must desist from its provocation of Russia by its eastern expansionist tendencies. Hard choices are often times needed to keep the peace without the evocation of any sentiments no matter how idealistic they may appear. What Russia is doing today is what the United States has done countless times in the past to protect its 'vital interests'.
