The escalating situation on the Korean peninsular should be a matter of concern to most rationally minded persons especially as this is coming on the heels of the coming to office of America's most intemperate President ever. When the Republican party presented Donald Trump as its candidate for President in the 2016 Presidential elections it was gambling the hope that Donald Trump's particular and peculiar approach to making America great again will resonate with voters and win them the White House even in the face of the obvious fact that his temperament made him peculiarly unsuitable for the White House. The Republican gamble succeeded in not only winning the party the White House but it brought them complete control of both Houses of Congress.
The fact however remains that the President of the United States however is also Commander in Chief of the world's largest military and controls the world's second largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. At about the same time a young man by the name of Kim Jong Un became the leader of North Korea after the death of his father Kim Il Sung. The new North Korean leader has shown himself to be similarly highly temperamental, unpredictable, mean and utterly ruthless with an ego to match or outmatch Trump's impulsiveness. With two out of control leaders in Pyongyang and Washington, North Korea succeeded in launching an ICBM that has range over all of the Continental USA and at the same succeeded in testing a nuclear weapon suspected to be a hydrogen bomb because of its unmatched destructive power .
President Trump meanwhile had promised or threatened that he will never allow North Korea while he is in office to build an ICBM that can threaten the continental USA. Within the first year of his administration all his fears concerning North Korea are realised as they actually launch missiles which are seen as capable of reaching Washington. The only doubt remains as to whether North Korea has perfected the technology for a successful re-entry of the warhead into the earth's atmosphere without being burnt up while trying to re-enter the atmospheric realm from outer space. At this point Donald Trump is genuinely concerned that he is failing to keep his long and oft-repeated campaign promise not to allow that happen including his threat to unleash a fire and fury on North Korea of an unprecedented scale in the world
With his multiple threats and promises unfulfilled, Trump is now obliged as far as his ego or strategic thinking is concerned to do something to show he is not a whimp nor is he bluffing where his threats are concerned even though his military leaders who are far more experienced and rational try to warn him that there are no good options available when it comes to a military strike on North Korea. All options presage bloodshed on a scale deemed unacceptable in the circumstances including subtle moves by the new North Korean born South Korean President that the South is not willing to sacrifice the lives of its citizens in other to appease Trump's fears concerning North Korea's intentions
The two Koreas have even gone a step further to defuse tensions between them by organising joint Korean team participations in the winter Olympics coming up in South Korea. All these no doubt are subtle signals by the two Koreas the chief protagonists in any ensuing conflict that they are not willing to sacrifice the lives of their citizens on the altar of Donald Trump's ego trip. The peace moves coming from even the willy North Korean leader has rather infuriated the American leader who rather sees it as an attempt by North Korea to drive a wedge between the US and South Korea and also buy time to enable him complete the development of his missile program.
There is no doubt that Donald Trump believes he has a genuine mandate to protect the American mainland from a North Korean Nuclear attack, but the North's leader has repeated many times that the North's weapons program is designed as an insurance against any attempted US attack on the regime in Pyongyang and that he has no intention of ever initiating an attack on the US unless he is actually attacked or threatened. What is therefore unfolding to befuddled spectators is a dangerous chess game between two unpredictable leaders with outsized egos who both feel they have a point to prove and none is ready to back down.
In this context however the North Korean leader is outwitting Donald Trump by making peace moves with the South howbeit in very cautious terms. He is labouring assiduously to present himself as the more rational and pragmatic leader and trying subtly to paint Trump as the protagonist who is bent on setting fire to the Korean Peninsular. Unfortunately for Trump he is winning this war of attirition especially in the light of the divisions among the Trump senior officials over the move to give the North Korean leader a bloody nose by launching a limited strike aimed at what i do not understand strategy of showing Kim that Donald Trump means business.
Considering Donald Trump's limited military experience, coupled with his outsize ego he does not appear to understand the danger of trying to bloody the nose of a man who is not even willing to be threatened or outmanouvered in the first place. Kim has shown that he is not willing to lose even a shouting match talk more of a shooting war no matter how limited Donald Trump may consider his objectives to be. A man that is as quick on the draw even in a verbal exchange as Kim has shown he can be is not the kind of man you can pull a trigger on, without expecting a corresponding barrage whose eventual consequences no man can foresee.
That fate has destined that Donald Trump's sparring partner on the global stage is Kim Jong Un is a reminder that fate and providence can deal you a cruel hand when you least expect many times. The sobering fact US planners must consider right now with the tension building up on the Korean Peninsular including its Asiatic neighbours and Russia inclusive is that anyone drawing his gun right now from his holster is calling for a new full fledged Korean war with all the devastating consequences predicted by all analysts in the build up to this highly preventable narratory and ultimately trajectory.
No US planner or military leader should be deceived by Donald Trump or Nikky Haley or any other hawk in Washington into thinking that you can initiate military action incrementally without unleashing the much feared and much talked about Second Korean war which even the US with all its military might is not guaranteed to win inspite of the millions of lives that will be at stake and the horrendous damages and casualties that will ensue in the event of a war. It is the responsibility of all in Washington to ensure that proper adult supervision is given in overseeing the conduct of Donald Trump's foreign policy on the Korean Peninsular in a way that does not endanger the Republic that the constitution has entrusted him to protect.
Friday, 2 February 2018
Thursday, 16 November 2017
The Global need for strategic patience in resolving the crises on the Korean Peninsular
The on-going confrontation between the United States and North Korea which dates back to June 25, 1950 when the North Korean army crossed the 38th parallel, the artificial border and demarcation between the US and Russian occupation zones of the newly liberated Korean Republic after the defeat of Japan in WW2 is more of a product of what i describe as the unfinished business of WW2 in the Far East where the Korean Peninsular is still simmering with crises and in the Northern Japanese Islands of Sakhalin still held by Russia nearly 72 years after the Pacific war.
These two spots in Asia are areas of conflict still lingering because The US and Russia the victors of the war in the Pacific ended the war as adversaries rather than as Allies. In April 1945 as the European war was coming to an end, the victorious allies, Great Britain, the USA,and the USSR held two great summit meetings both in Yalta in the Soviet Union in February 1945 and in Potsdam a suburb of Berlin in July 1945 to iron out issues relating to the end of the war in Europe and also to fine tune agreements towards the final settlements in the far East after the expected collapse of Japan.
While the issues in Europe were ironed out in ways that definitive peace settlements ultimately ensued, ultimately bringing peace to the continent that has endured till date, the settlements in the far East were far more complex and acrimonious especially as it related to the future of the Japanese held territories of Korea where the Truman administration had seemed to give the Soviet leader a free hand to deal freely until the US realised that wherever the Red army set its foot, communist rule and idealogy also followed.
The United States bore the greater burden for the defeat of Japan but were forced to share a disproportionate price for the administration of Japanese held Korea because in July 1945 during the Potsdam conference, the US and British leaders fearing a prolonged conflict in the Pacific invited Stalin to deal Japan a blow that could play a decisive role in Japan's collapse. Whether Japan could have surrendered without Russia's involvement is a matter for historian's to ponder upon, but Russia's involvement in a campaign that lasted precisely for about ten days and resulted in the Russian occupation of Manchuria, the northern half of Korea and the occupation of the Japanese northern territories in the Pacific has left two unresolved disputes 72 years after the war itself ended.
The Korean Peninsular remains bitterly divided till date and the Russians have remained in occupation of Sakhalin and the Kurile Islands precluding Japan from concluding a peace treaty with Russia till date. Because force of arms were involved in these acquisitions in a time of a wider conflict, their resolution cannot be divorced from the sentiments generated by the wider conflict. For all the parties involved, the cost of the war itself has to be looked into, in any attempt to discuss a resolution of these disputes especially when it has to involve giving up territories or conquest acquired in the course of the fighting and bloodshed.
That remains the primary reason why the US is still tied to its interests in Korea and Japan till date. The same goes for Russia in the Kuril Islands and for China in North Korea. Because of the historical sentiments these conflicts echo, it would be hard to ask any of the parties to back down today without a resumption of armed conflict as a means of effecting any territorial changes. The only other option is to allow time heal the wounds inflicted by the war and allow other issues bothering on economic, demographics and a new political consciousness play its role in shaping thinking and sentiments in resolving these protracted disputes which though appearing simple and mundane yet carry deep sentiments and huge historical significance.
WW2 was the greatest conflict and bloodletting ever seen on earth and the greatest need of this generation should be to allow WW2 truly be the war to end all wars and i think that is what the nuclear age is a spectacular reminder of, that World wars are no longer feasible and realistic for the remainder of man's habitation of the Planet earth as a means of resolving territorial disputes on a global scale . Any thinking by the US military Planners or the political leaders that the crises in the Korean Peninsular can be resolved by the force of arms is only an invitation for WW2 albeit WW3 to resume in the Pacific. Any military action by the US with Japanese support against North Korea no matter how insignificant would be an open sesame for the resumption of hostilities in the Pacific involving China and Russia.
The only plausible solution for the resolution of the Korean crises is the element of time as it happened in the peaceful resolution of the Cold war. It would be foolhardy for any party to think that seventy two years after WW2 the boundaries and demarcations created by that conflict can be altered by the force of arms without a resumption of open hostilities by the belligerents as happened during the first Korean War in 1950-53.
WW2 may be seventy two years gone by but the memories it provokes are still fresh and the antagonism has not yet fully abated particularly in the brutal Pacific war and all the nations involved are still on edge and many including China and Russia have not yet fully mourned their dead nor fully mentally recovered from the losses and war trauma and so it is in the best interest of President Trump and the US military leaders to let sleeping dogs lie and ignore the provocations of the young North Korean leader whose main instincts remain the urge for self preservation even with his nuclear arsenal.
There are some kinds of provocations that are best ignored for the sake of peace, because the passage of time in itself is a great facilitator for resolutions of issues that border on good and evil and i believe that is the course the world must pursue in resolving the crises on the Korean Peninsular, because time is not only a great healer but a great resolver of complex and acrimonious issues.
These two spots in Asia are areas of conflict still lingering because The US and Russia the victors of the war in the Pacific ended the war as adversaries rather than as Allies. In April 1945 as the European war was coming to an end, the victorious allies, Great Britain, the USA,and the USSR held two great summit meetings both in Yalta in the Soviet Union in February 1945 and in Potsdam a suburb of Berlin in July 1945 to iron out issues relating to the end of the war in Europe and also to fine tune agreements towards the final settlements in the far East after the expected collapse of Japan.
While the issues in Europe were ironed out in ways that definitive peace settlements ultimately ensued, ultimately bringing peace to the continent that has endured till date, the settlements in the far East were far more complex and acrimonious especially as it related to the future of the Japanese held territories of Korea where the Truman administration had seemed to give the Soviet leader a free hand to deal freely until the US realised that wherever the Red army set its foot, communist rule and idealogy also followed.
The United States bore the greater burden for the defeat of Japan but were forced to share a disproportionate price for the administration of Japanese held Korea because in July 1945 during the Potsdam conference, the US and British leaders fearing a prolonged conflict in the Pacific invited Stalin to deal Japan a blow that could play a decisive role in Japan's collapse. Whether Japan could have surrendered without Russia's involvement is a matter for historian's to ponder upon, but Russia's involvement in a campaign that lasted precisely for about ten days and resulted in the Russian occupation of Manchuria, the northern half of Korea and the occupation of the Japanese northern territories in the Pacific has left two unresolved disputes 72 years after the war itself ended.
The Korean Peninsular remains bitterly divided till date and the Russians have remained in occupation of Sakhalin and the Kurile Islands precluding Japan from concluding a peace treaty with Russia till date. Because force of arms were involved in these acquisitions in a time of a wider conflict, their resolution cannot be divorced from the sentiments generated by the wider conflict. For all the parties involved, the cost of the war itself has to be looked into, in any attempt to discuss a resolution of these disputes especially when it has to involve giving up territories or conquest acquired in the course of the fighting and bloodshed.
That remains the primary reason why the US is still tied to its interests in Korea and Japan till date. The same goes for Russia in the Kuril Islands and for China in North Korea. Because of the historical sentiments these conflicts echo, it would be hard to ask any of the parties to back down today without a resumption of armed conflict as a means of effecting any territorial changes. The only other option is to allow time heal the wounds inflicted by the war and allow other issues bothering on economic, demographics and a new political consciousness play its role in shaping thinking and sentiments in resolving these protracted disputes which though appearing simple and mundane yet carry deep sentiments and huge historical significance.
WW2 was the greatest conflict and bloodletting ever seen on earth and the greatest need of this generation should be to allow WW2 truly be the war to end all wars and i think that is what the nuclear age is a spectacular reminder of, that World wars are no longer feasible and realistic for the remainder of man's habitation of the Planet earth as a means of resolving territorial disputes on a global scale . Any thinking by the US military Planners or the political leaders that the crises in the Korean Peninsular can be resolved by the force of arms is only an invitation for WW2 albeit WW3 to resume in the Pacific. Any military action by the US with Japanese support against North Korea no matter how insignificant would be an open sesame for the resumption of hostilities in the Pacific involving China and Russia.
The only plausible solution for the resolution of the Korean crises is the element of time as it happened in the peaceful resolution of the Cold war. It would be foolhardy for any party to think that seventy two years after WW2 the boundaries and demarcations created by that conflict can be altered by the force of arms without a resumption of open hostilities by the belligerents as happened during the first Korean War in 1950-53.
WW2 may be seventy two years gone by but the memories it provokes are still fresh and the antagonism has not yet fully abated particularly in the brutal Pacific war and all the nations involved are still on edge and many including China and Russia have not yet fully mourned their dead nor fully mentally recovered from the losses and war trauma and so it is in the best interest of President Trump and the US military leaders to let sleeping dogs lie and ignore the provocations of the young North Korean leader whose main instincts remain the urge for self preservation even with his nuclear arsenal.
There are some kinds of provocations that are best ignored for the sake of peace, because the passage of time in itself is a great facilitator for resolutions of issues that border on good and evil and i believe that is the course the world must pursue in resolving the crises on the Korean Peninsular, because time is not only a great healer but a great resolver of complex and acrimonious issues.
Monday, 6 November 2017
North Korea - US confrontation, the unfinished business of WW2
To many young people today and the uninformed, the root crises of the confrontation between North Korea and the United States government remains a source of mystery. Not many however are aware that the causal belle of the crises dates back to behind the scenes deals the US made with Joseph Stalin of the USSR to enable the Allies gain quick victory over Japan in WW2 and bring the war to a close. As the Pacific war drew to its climax in February 1945 and President Roosevelt of the USA and Prime Minister Winston Churchill of the UK deliberated on how to shorten the Pacific war in the face of the imminent collapse of Germany and the specter of victory in Europe, war weariness had begun to set in in the US and the political leadership wanted to fast track the efforts in the Pacific to bring about quick victory over Japan and bring WW2 to an end in the summer of 1945.
Haste, impatience and war weariness after four years of fighting the increasingly bitter campaign against Japan led to the fateful decision to invite Joseph Stalin to launch an attack on Japan in Manchuria and Korea to enable the Allies deliver the Coup-De grace that was meant to kick Japan out of the war. Roosevelt and Churchill were already aware of Stalin's designs and efforts to impose communist rule on Eastern Europe as the Red Army spread its presence over those countries. Why it did not occur to the Western Allies that a Red army intervention in the far East paticularly over the Japanese occupied provinces of Manchuria and Korea would leave a lingering crises in the post war settlement in the far East still remains a source of mystery.
The thought that Stalin would hand over the Russian liberated territories to the Western Allies would have been a work of poor judgement. It took strong pressure from the Truman administration to stop the Red army from conquering the whole Korean peninsular and when the Soviets left they left behind a strong communist administration superintended by the Kim family who have remained at the helm of affairs in North Korea till date. The carving out of the US zone of occupation into the present day South Korea was a belated effort by the Truman administration in the aftermath of the war to halt the spread of communism in the war liberated territories in East Asia. That lack of foresight and strategic planning by the US is also the reason China fell under communist rule.
The subsequent effort of the Kim dynasty to conquer the South had to be resisted by force by the US and her allies and it led to the Korean war which has still not resolved the fate of the peninsular till date as neither party is willing to budge even in the face of a nuclear confrontation. The US inadvertently set the pace for the crises today by virtue of the hasty decision to involve the Soviet Union in the war in the East. The price Stalin demanded is what the US is paying till date, the need to accomodate a communist and nuclear armed North Korea and allow her be. To conquer North Korea would require a continuation of WW2 albeit in the form of WW3 and a willingness by the US to confront both Russia and China major stake holders in the Korean peninsular.
Whether the decision by the Truman administration to invite Russia in to the war in the far east was justifiable is left to this generation of Americans to determine but it would be worth while for President Donald Trump to do a bit of the study of history before coming to any rash conclusion or decision.
Haste, impatience and war weariness after four years of fighting the increasingly bitter campaign against Japan led to the fateful decision to invite Joseph Stalin to launch an attack on Japan in Manchuria and Korea to enable the Allies deliver the Coup-De grace that was meant to kick Japan out of the war. Roosevelt and Churchill were already aware of Stalin's designs and efforts to impose communist rule on Eastern Europe as the Red Army spread its presence over those countries. Why it did not occur to the Western Allies that a Red army intervention in the far East paticularly over the Japanese occupied provinces of Manchuria and Korea would leave a lingering crises in the post war settlement in the far East still remains a source of mystery.
The thought that Stalin would hand over the Russian liberated territories to the Western Allies would have been a work of poor judgement. It took strong pressure from the Truman administration to stop the Red army from conquering the whole Korean peninsular and when the Soviets left they left behind a strong communist administration superintended by the Kim family who have remained at the helm of affairs in North Korea till date. The carving out of the US zone of occupation into the present day South Korea was a belated effort by the Truman administration in the aftermath of the war to halt the spread of communism in the war liberated territories in East Asia. That lack of foresight and strategic planning by the US is also the reason China fell under communist rule.
The subsequent effort of the Kim dynasty to conquer the South had to be resisted by force by the US and her allies and it led to the Korean war which has still not resolved the fate of the peninsular till date as neither party is willing to budge even in the face of a nuclear confrontation. The US inadvertently set the pace for the crises today by virtue of the hasty decision to involve the Soviet Union in the war in the East. The price Stalin demanded is what the US is paying till date, the need to accomodate a communist and nuclear armed North Korea and allow her be. To conquer North Korea would require a continuation of WW2 albeit in the form of WW3 and a willingness by the US to confront both Russia and China major stake holders in the Korean peninsular.
Whether the decision by the Truman administration to invite Russia in to the war in the far east was justifiable is left to this generation of Americans to determine but it would be worth while for President Donald Trump to do a bit of the study of history before coming to any rash conclusion or decision.
Tuesday, 20 June 2017
Russia versus the United States in the season of Donald Trump
The Presidency that Donald J Trump assumed on January 20, 2017 and the circumstances of his winning the 2016 election under the cloud and suspicion of collaborating with the Kremlin to swing the election in his favour and the attendant probe by both the FBI and House committee is beginning to impact on decisions taken by key officials of the Trump administration in the arena of foreign policy and defense. The notion that the Russian government meddled in the US Presidential election in favour of Republican candidate Donald Trump, while it began in the twilight days of the Barak Obama administration has with the appointment of Robert Mueller the former FBI director appointed as special counsel by deputy Attorney general Roseintein assumed a life of its own and it is beginning to weigh down on the Trump administration.
The fact that Trump is being investigated for having close ties with the Kremlin effectively ties the hands of the President in taking decisions seen as favorable to Russia, this effectively ties down the hands of the President in taking any decision seen as pro-Moscow. The reverse side of the equation which is the subject of this write-up is that each time Trump or his officials take a hard line on Russia, he is seen as vindicated of any prior ties with the Russians. This state of affairs is definitely not healthy for the US or the Trump administration who now have to be hawkish in their approach to Moscow in order to obtain a reprieve from American public opinion.
This trend is obviously noticeable in the decision by the Pentagon in shooting down a Russian built, Syrian owned SU-22 plane which was seen as attacking pro-US rebels fighting the Islamic state in Syria, The decision by the Americans to shoot down the Syrian jet was obviously taken not only to protect the US-led Syrian rebels but obviously to show that Trump is not a whimp where fighting the Pro-Russian forces are concerned. The danger is that the Russians are now viewing themselves as pawns in the chess game between rival and opposing groups in Washington. That no doubt informs Russia's hard line in threatening to target and attack coalition aircraft west of the Euphrates River seen as threatening Russian/ Syrian air operations.
The sum game is that because of this pre-conceived notion of Trump and the need to vindicate himself, US policy on Russia is automatically on a default setting which is dangerous and unhealthy for world peace. That President Trump can no longer follow his convictions but know-tow towards a hardline on the Kremlin is the fallout of this investigation into the President's alleged ties with Putin. Whether this state of affairs will benefit or be healthy to the US on the long-run is still to be known, but any course of events that puts the President in a strait-jacket is not only unhealthy but unsafe for America on the long-run.
The fact that Trump is being investigated for having close ties with the Kremlin effectively ties the hands of the President in taking decisions seen as favorable to Russia, this effectively ties down the hands of the President in taking any decision seen as pro-Moscow. The reverse side of the equation which is the subject of this write-up is that each time Trump or his officials take a hard line on Russia, he is seen as vindicated of any prior ties with the Russians. This state of affairs is definitely not healthy for the US or the Trump administration who now have to be hawkish in their approach to Moscow in order to obtain a reprieve from American public opinion.
This trend is obviously noticeable in the decision by the Pentagon in shooting down a Russian built, Syrian owned SU-22 plane which was seen as attacking pro-US rebels fighting the Islamic state in Syria, The decision by the Americans to shoot down the Syrian jet was obviously taken not only to protect the US-led Syrian rebels but obviously to show that Trump is not a whimp where fighting the Pro-Russian forces are concerned. The danger is that the Russians are now viewing themselves as pawns in the chess game between rival and opposing groups in Washington. That no doubt informs Russia's hard line in threatening to target and attack coalition aircraft west of the Euphrates River seen as threatening Russian/ Syrian air operations.
The sum game is that because of this pre-conceived notion of Trump and the need to vindicate himself, US policy on Russia is automatically on a default setting which is dangerous and unhealthy for world peace. That President Trump can no longer follow his convictions but know-tow towards a hardline on the Kremlin is the fallout of this investigation into the President's alleged ties with Putin. Whether this state of affairs will benefit or be healthy to the US on the long-run is still to be known, but any course of events that puts the President in a strait-jacket is not only unhealthy but unsafe for America on the long-run.
Tuesday, 28 February 2017
Donald Trump's America, exploring the frontier between freedom and tyranny
The United States of America, the world's oldest and boldest experiment in democracy, the rule of law and respect for human rights is after two centuries and a half century of existence beginning to tolerate in its body polity and embrace extremist views that would have been deemed wholly incomprehensible about fifty years ago. The great arsenal of democracy according to Franklin Delano Roosevelt has after fighting two world wars to defend human rights, the rule of law and check totalitarianism is itself beginning to be fatigued with the norms of the liberal democratic order and beginning a romance with extremist ideas in the guise of rejuvenating the American dream.
Nobody who lived through the Cold war and saw the determination with which the USA fought for the dignity of man , the rule of law and democratic norms would believe that he will live see a day when the American president will make it obviously clear that the non-native born immigrant or the vibrant American press with all its failings would be declared to be the enemy of the American dream or ideal.
That Donald Trump with the kinds of extremist views, falsehoods and deceptions he embodied in the course of his campaigns could receive the support of 62 million American voters and win the White House goes to show how much the respect for the liberal political climate has dimmed with the mainstream American voter. Donald Trump cannot and should not be held responsible for the shift in the liberal thinking of the average American today.The man is a business man, deal maker and an opportunist who could clearly see the moral breach opening up in the psyche of the average American voter and decided to explore it to win the White House.
The ideals of the founding fathers of the USA are clearly blurred and lost in the consciousness of many main stream Americans today. The huge price paid in blood and bounty to secure the democratic freedoms enshrined in the nation's polity are clearly eroded and degraded in the national consciousness today.
I make bold to say that there is not much difference between the political climate in the USA today and the the Italy of 1922 and the Weimar Germany of 1931 when the fascists in Italy under Benito Mussolini and the national socialists under Adolf Hitler began to make great gains and strides in the political order, coming out of the fringes of main stream political thinking and beginning to dominate the national consciousness. The idea was that these were strongmen able to bend the institutions of state to achieve their political aims and advance the national agenda rather than men driven by the lust for power who had no clearly defined political direction and were simply megalomaniacs who were egocentric and driven by the desire to be in the middle of the limelight and the national discourse.
That Donald Trump has no clearly defined political agenda or economic program is still not clearly discernible to his most rabbid supporters who are blinded by prejudice and sentiments. It will take a little while for many to realise that Trump has no real program, but the desire to win the White House and trounce his political enemies, paticularly Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton. Running for the White House was meant to be the latest in his string of accomplishments as a born winner. Fulfilling his many campaign promises would be an after thought. For now it will suffice him to blame the American press and his many political enemies for his present failings.
When the American people chose to freely elect a man that despises the free press, disparages immigrants, has contempt for intelligence briefings, mocks the judiciary and denigrates judges, threatens to seize the oilfields of an independent nation, mocks the concept of NATO and the EU, has contempt for free trade agreements and sees climate change as a hoax, i knew the American dream was in for a rough ride in the hands of Donald J Trump. 250 years of democracy,freedom and the rule of law can sometimes be taken for granted and i daresay that the 62 million Americans who chose the Trump ride truly decided to take democracy for granted.
Nobody who lived through the Cold war and saw the determination with which the USA fought for the dignity of man , the rule of law and democratic norms would believe that he will live see a day when the American president will make it obviously clear that the non-native born immigrant or the vibrant American press with all its failings would be declared to be the enemy of the American dream or ideal.
That Donald Trump with the kinds of extremist views, falsehoods and deceptions he embodied in the course of his campaigns could receive the support of 62 million American voters and win the White House goes to show how much the respect for the liberal political climate has dimmed with the mainstream American voter. Donald Trump cannot and should not be held responsible for the shift in the liberal thinking of the average American today.The man is a business man, deal maker and an opportunist who could clearly see the moral breach opening up in the psyche of the average American voter and decided to explore it to win the White House.
The ideals of the founding fathers of the USA are clearly blurred and lost in the consciousness of many main stream Americans today. The huge price paid in blood and bounty to secure the democratic freedoms enshrined in the nation's polity are clearly eroded and degraded in the national consciousness today.
I make bold to say that there is not much difference between the political climate in the USA today and the the Italy of 1922 and the Weimar Germany of 1931 when the fascists in Italy under Benito Mussolini and the national socialists under Adolf Hitler began to make great gains and strides in the political order, coming out of the fringes of main stream political thinking and beginning to dominate the national consciousness. The idea was that these were strongmen able to bend the institutions of state to achieve their political aims and advance the national agenda rather than men driven by the lust for power who had no clearly defined political direction and were simply megalomaniacs who were egocentric and driven by the desire to be in the middle of the limelight and the national discourse.
That Donald Trump has no clearly defined political agenda or economic program is still not clearly discernible to his most rabbid supporters who are blinded by prejudice and sentiments. It will take a little while for many to realise that Trump has no real program, but the desire to win the White House and trounce his political enemies, paticularly Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton. Running for the White House was meant to be the latest in his string of accomplishments as a born winner. Fulfilling his many campaign promises would be an after thought. For now it will suffice him to blame the American press and his many political enemies for his present failings.
When the American people chose to freely elect a man that despises the free press, disparages immigrants, has contempt for intelligence briefings, mocks the judiciary and denigrates judges, threatens to seize the oilfields of an independent nation, mocks the concept of NATO and the EU, has contempt for free trade agreements and sees climate change as a hoax, i knew the American dream was in for a rough ride in the hands of Donald J Trump. 250 years of democracy,freedom and the rule of law can sometimes be taken for granted and i daresay that the 62 million Americans who chose the Trump ride truly decided to take democracy for granted.
Thursday, 19 January 2017
DONALD TRUMP'S INAUGURATION IS USHERING IN A NEW WORLD ORDER
DONALD TRUMP'S INAUGURATION IS USHERING IN A NEW WORLD ORDER
Come January 20, 2017 a new world order is set to begin with the inauguration of Donald J Trump as the 45th President of the United States of America. The last time a new world order was created in 1991,came with the demise of the Soviet Union and the liberation of the East European nations from the yoke of communism and Soviet rule. Over a quarter of another century, the phenomenon is about to repeat itself. Each time a new world order comes on stage, it comes with its own reverberations and upheavals with the consequential domino effect and the toppling of ideologies, alignments and a shake-up of the world political order as we are about to witness again.
It is expected that the beginning of a new re-alignment of political forces and Geo-political realities always comes with its own teething pains and birth pangs. For those of us who have canvassed for the last few years that the the United States needed to reinvent itself to maintain relevance and leadership at the global level with the emergence of a new world economic order championed with the rise of China as a global economic super power able to compete,rival and even challenge the United States for global economic supremacy, the present trend of events does not come as a surprise. The Barak Obama administration spent the last eight years fighting to uphold a status quo globally that could no longer hold in the face of newly emerging facts and trends.
When Mikhail Gorbachev emerged in 1985 as the General Secretary and leader of the Soviet Union he came with his reforms of Glasnost {openness} and Perestroika {restructuring} purposely for the purpose of saving the Soviet economic and political system in a struggle that was doomed to failure. What his reforms succeeded in accomplishing was the quick demise of the Soviet Union and the emergence of the present world order that catapulted the United States to the position of a Super Power in a unipolar world, a position she has enjoyed for another quarter of a century until the emergence of China as first an economic Super power as she is now for all practical purposes and reality except, for the most deluded minds finding it difficult to grapple with reality.
The revival of Russia as a global military power and the ascendancy of India as a rising economic and military power alongside with the emergence of Germany as the dominant nation in the European Union have all weakened in no small measure the Anglo- American political/economic hegemony that has kept the US at the helm of world affairs since the end of the Second world war in 1945.
While the US remains a major player in the affairs of the globe, her ability to unilaterally fashion and dictate the pace of world affairs is what is sadly coming to and end in this new emerging world order of which Donald Trump is the percuss-or and champion. The angst,rage and hostility being directed at Donald Trump's policies and even Presidency is coming from those who naturally resent this tide of change and direction of global affairs and who feel they will be losing out as the status quo is giving way. How this new world order will ultimately shapen out is still at best a matter of conjecture, but a re-approachment that will ease tensions between the United States and Russia and lead to the elimination of nuclear weapons while fashioning out increased co-operation between the leading nuclear states will definitely help to make for a better world and a safer planet for all.
The Warsaw Pact collapsed in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of the present world order, it is yet to be known what the fate of NATO and the European Union will be in the face of the re-rapprochements and realignments that will be taking place globally once Donald H Trump is sworn into office on the 20th of January.
Come January 20, 2017 a new world order is set to begin with the inauguration of Donald J Trump as the 45th President of the United States of America. The last time a new world order was created in 1991,came with the demise of the Soviet Union and the liberation of the East European nations from the yoke of communism and Soviet rule. Over a quarter of another century, the phenomenon is about to repeat itself. Each time a new world order comes on stage, it comes with its own reverberations and upheavals with the consequential domino effect and the toppling of ideologies, alignments and a shake-up of the world political order as we are about to witness again.
It is expected that the beginning of a new re-alignment of political forces and Geo-political realities always comes with its own teething pains and birth pangs. For those of us who have canvassed for the last few years that the the United States needed to reinvent itself to maintain relevance and leadership at the global level with the emergence of a new world economic order championed with the rise of China as a global economic super power able to compete,rival and even challenge the United States for global economic supremacy, the present trend of events does not come as a surprise. The Barak Obama administration spent the last eight years fighting to uphold a status quo globally that could no longer hold in the face of newly emerging facts and trends.
When Mikhail Gorbachev emerged in 1985 as the General Secretary and leader of the Soviet Union he came with his reforms of Glasnost {openness} and Perestroika {restructuring} purposely for the purpose of saving the Soviet economic and political system in a struggle that was doomed to failure. What his reforms succeeded in accomplishing was the quick demise of the Soviet Union and the emergence of the present world order that catapulted the United States to the position of a Super Power in a unipolar world, a position she has enjoyed for another quarter of a century until the emergence of China as first an economic Super power as she is now for all practical purposes and reality except, for the most deluded minds finding it difficult to grapple with reality.
The revival of Russia as a global military power and the ascendancy of India as a rising economic and military power alongside with the emergence of Germany as the dominant nation in the European Union have all weakened in no small measure the Anglo- American political/economic hegemony that has kept the US at the helm of world affairs since the end of the Second world war in 1945.
While the US remains a major player in the affairs of the globe, her ability to unilaterally fashion and dictate the pace of world affairs is what is sadly coming to and end in this new emerging world order of which Donald Trump is the percuss-or and champion. The angst,rage and hostility being directed at Donald Trump's policies and even Presidency is coming from those who naturally resent this tide of change and direction of global affairs and who feel they will be losing out as the status quo is giving way. How this new world order will ultimately shapen out is still at best a matter of conjecture, but a re-approachment that will ease tensions between the United States and Russia and lead to the elimination of nuclear weapons while fashioning out increased co-operation between the leading nuclear states will definitely help to make for a better world and a safer planet for all.
The Warsaw Pact collapsed in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of the present world order, it is yet to be known what the fate of NATO and the European Union will be in the face of the re-rapprochements and realignments that will be taking place globally once Donald H Trump is sworn into office on the 20th of January.
Wednesday, 16 March 2016
2016 ELECTIONS, AMERICA AT A CROSSROADS, THE RISE OF INSURGENT POLITICS
After over a hundred and twenty years of being the nation referred to as God's own country , the dream land, the land of the brave and the free, the rainbow coalition, the land of limitless opportunity, the United States of America is facing an unparalleled identity crises as it heads into the 21st century and confronts the the reality that a bipolar world that in the early 21st century yielded way to a unipolar world is now giving way again to a multipolar world . There is nothing truer of the 21st century than the fact that constant change and willingness to adapt has become the reality of the hour and not just the day. It is a fact that a lot of Americans particularly the baby boomer generation are fighting hard to come to terms with the fact that the cultural and racial mix that had been the bedrock of US society for over a hundred years is now giving way to a coalition of a type not necessarily ascribed to the Rainbow that they have come to recognise.
America is confronting change in ways and dimensions that many are finding very hard to bear especially as it is affecting their political and economic well being. It is just natural and very human for folks to resist any form of change that touches on their wellbeing and diminishes their leverage in life and society. Urbanisation, globalisation and the world wide web and associated innovations have radically changed the face of the earth not just the United States. The information age and economic innovations of the last quarter century are simply saying to all to change or perish. For the poor and deprived, it comes as good news but for the rich and privileged for whom the prospect of change comes with the threat of a loss of privilege and benefits the prospect of change becomes daunting.
No group of people are feeling the scare more than the white privileged members of society for whom retaining the existing social order is a task that must be done. The fact is that the information age is creating a more egalitarian world where opportunities are opening up across a global spectrum to all who are willing and ready to participate. Information technology has reduced the world to a truly global village where skills and expertise are being freely traded just as easily as goods and services . Geography and boundaries are no longer able to insulate any society from the effects of globalisation. Donald Trump's dream wall may succeed in keeping out immigrant Mexicans but it will not succeed in keeping out cheaper and more competitive goods and services from streaming across the border and threatening American jobs.
Many times to regain competitiveness you have to remove the safety nets you have built around yourself that is denying you a capacity for honest self appraisal. If the generation of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders' insurgent supporters have ever sat down to honestly ask themselves as to how best to permanently adapt to the reality of an ever changing world they will soon come to realise that enduring change will not come through a political revolution that is only designed to obscure your view of stark reality but one that honestly helps you to make the fundamental changes that will enable you to regain competitiveness once more on a global level. Americans must never forget that the US came out of a Great Depression in the 1930's that wiped out close to a quarter of GDP in a space of five years to a period of growth and expansion albeit in wartime that saw the US economic expansion occupy close to 50% of global output by 1950.
That is the kind of mindset that the nation needs to galvanise and not a destructive set of values that undermines the very basic principle of American economic prosperity which is rooted in innovation, hard work and capacity to adapt to change in whatever shape or form that it is required in order to keep productivity on an upbeat level. Finally it must be remembered that the global wind of change that is straddling even the United States is not going to wait for any nation or society that is not ready to make the compromises needed to gain the headwinds. The recurring decimals remains that change and compromise remains the mantra for growth and relevance today in this fast evolving world. A Roman senator once appealed to his colleagues in ancient Rome 'we have succeeded in changing the world can we not change ourselves' ?
America is confronting change in ways and dimensions that many are finding very hard to bear especially as it is affecting their political and economic well being. It is just natural and very human for folks to resist any form of change that touches on their wellbeing and diminishes their leverage in life and society. Urbanisation, globalisation and the world wide web and associated innovations have radically changed the face of the earth not just the United States. The information age and economic innovations of the last quarter century are simply saying to all to change or perish. For the poor and deprived, it comes as good news but for the rich and privileged for whom the prospect of change comes with the threat of a loss of privilege and benefits the prospect of change becomes daunting.
No group of people are feeling the scare more than the white privileged members of society for whom retaining the existing social order is a task that must be done. The fact is that the information age is creating a more egalitarian world where opportunities are opening up across a global spectrum to all who are willing and ready to participate. Information technology has reduced the world to a truly global village where skills and expertise are being freely traded just as easily as goods and services . Geography and boundaries are no longer able to insulate any society from the effects of globalisation. Donald Trump's dream wall may succeed in keeping out immigrant Mexicans but it will not succeed in keeping out cheaper and more competitive goods and services from streaming across the border and threatening American jobs.
Many times to regain competitiveness you have to remove the safety nets you have built around yourself that is denying you a capacity for honest self appraisal. If the generation of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders' insurgent supporters have ever sat down to honestly ask themselves as to how best to permanently adapt to the reality of an ever changing world they will soon come to realise that enduring change will not come through a political revolution that is only designed to obscure your view of stark reality but one that honestly helps you to make the fundamental changes that will enable you to regain competitiveness once more on a global level. Americans must never forget that the US came out of a Great Depression in the 1930's that wiped out close to a quarter of GDP in a space of five years to a period of growth and expansion albeit in wartime that saw the US economic expansion occupy close to 50% of global output by 1950.
That is the kind of mindset that the nation needs to galvanise and not a destructive set of values that undermines the very basic principle of American economic prosperity which is rooted in innovation, hard work and capacity to adapt to change in whatever shape or form that it is required in order to keep productivity on an upbeat level. Finally it must be remembered that the global wind of change that is straddling even the United States is not going to wait for any nation or society that is not ready to make the compromises needed to gain the headwinds. The recurring decimals remains that change and compromise remains the mantra for growth and relevance today in this fast evolving world. A Roman senator once appealed to his colleagues in ancient Rome 'we have succeeded in changing the world can we not change ourselves' ?
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