Thursday, 16 November 2017

The Global need for strategic patience in resolving the crises on the Korean Peninsular

The on-going confrontation between the United States and North Korea which dates back to June 25, 1950 when the North Korean army crossed the 38th parallel, the artificial border and demarcation between the US and Russian occupation zones of the newly liberated Korean Republic after the defeat of Japan in WW2 is more of a product of  what i describe as the  unfinished business of WW2 in the Far East where the Korean Peninsular is still simmering with crises and in the Northern Japanese Islands of Sakhalin still held by Russia nearly 72 years after the Pacific war.

These two spots in Asia are areas of conflict still lingering because The US and Russia the victors of the war in the Pacific ended the war as adversaries rather than as Allies. In April 1945 as the European war was coming to an end, the victorious allies, Great Britain, the USA,and the USSR held two great summit meetings both in Yalta in the Soviet Union in February 1945 and in Potsdam a suburb of Berlin in July 1945 to iron out issues relating to the end of the war in Europe and also to fine tune agreements towards the final settlements in the far East after the expected collapse of Japan.

While the issues in Europe were ironed out in ways that definitive peace settlements ultimately ensued, ultimately bringing peace to the continent that has endured till date, the settlements in the far East were far more complex and acrimonious especially as it related to the future of the Japanese held territories of Korea where the Truman administration had seemed to give the Soviet leader a free hand to deal freely until the US realised that wherever the Red army set its foot, communist rule and idealogy also followed.

The United States bore the greater burden for the defeat of Japan but were forced to share a disproportionate price for the administration of Japanese held Korea because in July 1945 during the Potsdam conference, the US and British leaders fearing a prolonged conflict in the Pacific invited Stalin to deal Japan a blow that could play a decisive role in Japan's collapse. Whether Japan could have surrendered without Russia's involvement is a matter for historian's to ponder upon, but Russia's involvement in a campaign that lasted precisely for about ten days and resulted in the Russian occupation of Manchuria, the northern half of Korea and the occupation of the Japanese northern territories in the Pacific has left two unresolved disputes 72 years after the war itself ended.

The Korean Peninsular remains bitterly divided till date and the Russians have remained in occupation of Sakhalin and the Kurile Islands precluding Japan from concluding a peace treaty with Russia till date. Because force of arms were involved in these acquisitions in a time of a wider conflict, their resolution cannot be divorced from the sentiments generated by the wider conflict. For all the parties involved, the cost of the war itself has to be looked into, in any attempt to discuss a resolution of these disputes especially when it has to involve giving up territories or conquest acquired in the course of the fighting and bloodshed.

That remains the primary reason why the US is still tied to its interests in Korea and Japan till date. The same goes for Russia in the Kuril Islands and for China in North Korea. Because of the historical sentiments these conflicts echo, it would be hard to ask any of  the parties to back down today without a resumption of  armed conflict as a means of effecting any territorial changes. The only other option is to allow time heal the wounds inflicted by the war and allow other issues bothering on economic, demographics and a new political consciousness play its role in shaping thinking and sentiments in resolving these protracted disputes which though appearing simple and mundane yet carry deep sentiments and huge historical significance.

 WW2 was the greatest conflict and bloodletting ever seen on earth and the greatest need of this generation should be to allow WW2 truly be the war to end all wars and i think that is what the nuclear age is a spectacular reminder of, that World wars are no longer feasible and realistic for the remainder of man's habitation of the Planet earth as a means of resolving territorial disputes on a global scale . Any thinking by the US military Planners or the political leaders that the crises in the Korean Peninsular can be resolved by the force of arms is only an invitation for WW2 albeit WW3 to resume in the Pacific. Any military action by the US with Japanese support against North Korea no matter how insignificant would be an open sesame for the resumption of hostilities in the Pacific involving China and Russia.

The only plausible solution for the resolution of the Korean crises is the element of time as it happened in the peaceful resolution of the Cold war. It would be foolhardy for any party to think that seventy two years after WW2 the boundaries and demarcations created by that conflict can be altered by the force of arms without a resumption of open hostilities by the belligerents as happened during the first Korean War in 1950-53.

WW2 may be seventy two years gone by but the memories it provokes are still fresh and the antagonism has not yet fully abated particularly in the brutal Pacific war and all the nations involved are still on edge and many including China and Russia have not yet fully mourned their dead nor fully mentally recovered from the losses and war trauma and so it is in the best interest of President Trump and the US military leaders to let sleeping dogs lie and ignore the provocations of the young North Korean leader whose main instincts remain the urge for self preservation even with his nuclear arsenal.

 There are some kinds of provocations that are best ignored for the sake of peace, because the passage of time in itself is a great facilitator for resolutions of issues that border on good and evil and i believe that is the course the world must pursue in resolving the crises on the Korean Peninsular, because time is not only a great healer but a great resolver of complex and acrimonious issues.      

1 comment:

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